After a dry and inconsistent winter across parts of the West last season, early weather models are starting to hint at something skiers and snowboarders love to hear: El Niño may be returning.
According to recent outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Pacific Ocean has officially shifted into an ENSO-neutral phase, meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño is currently in control. However, forecasters are increasingly confident that El Niño conditions could develop later this summer and continue through winter.
While it is still too early to predict exact snowfall totals, the latest outlooks are already creating buzz around what the 2026–2027 ski season could look like for mountain destinations like Mammoth Lakes and Steamboat Springs.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Those warmer waters can influence storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and temperatures across North America during the winter months.
In many past El Niño winters, the southern half of the United States has experienced cooler and wetter conditions, while portions of the Rockies and Sierra Nevada have seen stronger storm activity.
This year, some forecasting models are even hinting at the possibility of a “very strong” or “Super” El Niño developing later in 2026, although NOAA says that remains far from guaranteed. Current projections place the chances of a very strong El Niño at roughly 25%.
What Could This Mean for Mammoth Lakes?
For skiers and snowboarders heading to Mammoth Mountain, El Niño years can often bring excitement because stronger Pacific storm systems tend to favor California.
Historically, stronger El Niño winters have sometimes delivered major Sierra snow seasons, especially when atmospheric rivers align with colder storm patterns. That does not guarantee nonstop powder days, but it can improve the odds of more active storm cycles compared to neutral years.
Forecasters say any meaningful impacts from El Niño likely would not arrive until later in the fall or early winter. For now, summer and early autumn conditions remain uncertain, with no clear wet or dry signal yet for the Sierra.
Still, after a disappointing winter last season, even the possibility of a more active Pacific pattern is enough to get snow lovers watching closely.
How Could Steamboat Springs Be Affected?
In Steamboat Springs, the picture is a little more nuanced.
Colorado winters during El Niño events can vary depending on how strong the pattern becomes and where the jet stream sets up. However, some meteorologists believe a stronger El Niño could improve snowfall chances, particularly for southern and central Colorado mountains.
Recent outlooks from Colorado meteorologists also suggest the developing El Niño pattern could support a slightly wetter setup heading into winter, especially if Pacific moisture increases later in the year.
For Steamboat, that could mean better opportunities for consistent snowfall, colder storm systems, and more of the famous Champagne Powder® conditions the resort is known for.
Why It Is Still Too Early to Predict Snowfall
Even with growing confidence that El Niño could develop, meteorologists continue to stress that long-range winter forecasting comes with a lot of uncertainty.
NOAA officials say the main focus right now is simply whether El Niño fully develops and how the atmosphere responds over the coming months.
In other words, it is far too early to start predicting exact snow totals for Mammoth or Steamboat. But early indicators are certainly more encouraging than they were this time last year.
Planning Ahead for Winter Travel
Whether this winter ends up average, above average, or something special, one thing remains consistent: the most sought-after holiday weeks and powder-season weekends book early.
At Nomadness Rentals, we are already seeing guests starting to plan ahead for next ski season in both Mammoth Lakes and Steamboat Springs.
If the El Niño outlook continues trending in a positive direction this fall, excitement around the upcoming ski season will likely build quickly.